Bitcoin price forecast

What the Glimpse prediction markets expect the Bitcoin price to be — and how often that expectation was right.

Bitcoin at 19:00

85.900 USD

80 % between 84.665 and 86.790 · most likely 86000-86200 (12 %)

On record since 01.10. 18:27. That record is anchored in Bitcoin block 969.471, mined 01.10. 19:41.

Your guess: where will Bitcoin be at 19:00?

Closest to the bucket the Glimpse market resolves to wins; among equals, the earlier guess. Guesses close at 18:45.

Prize: 2.100 sats for the best guess, paid over Bark. Add your Lightning address now, or claim the prize from this browser afterwards.

Signed in this browser with a key that stays here — no account. Name, price and Lightning address are public. A new guess replaces your earlier one.

Bets nobody holds

Two people fund one pot on Arkade. Only the oracle's secret plus the winner's key can open it. Kickstr never sees the money: these are the players' own reports.

  • Bitcoin at or above 86.000 USD at 12:00?

    Pot 2.000 sats · YES 1.636 · NO 364

    ✓ YES took the pot.

    funding 2a4414c94d9d5a66… · claim 37774a1da19800d4…

Can you trust it?

A forecast is a hit when the price ends inside the band the market gave 80 %. An honest forecast hits about 8 times out of 10.

12 h before the close

95 of 107

true bucket got 6 % on average

⛓ 107 anchored in Bitcoin before the close

3 h before the close

101 of 117

true bucket got 14 % on average

⛓ 114 anchored in Bitcoin before the close

60 min before the close

98 of 119

true bucket got 23 % on average

⛓ 95 anchored in Bitcoin before the close

30 min before the close

107 of 120

true bucket got 34 % on average

⛓ 1 anchored in Bitcoin before the close

10 min before the close

113 of 120

true bucket got 42 % on average

none anchored before the close

2 min before the close

117 of 120

true bucket got 52 % on average

none anchored before the close

Band 30 min before the close, and where the price landed

80 % band landed inside ✕ landed outside

84.000 86.000 19:00 · 80 % 83.425–84.384 · resolved 84000-84200 20:00 · 80 % 83.800–85.250 · resolved 84800-85000 21:00 · 80 % 84.809–85.160 · resolved 84600-84800 22:00 · 80 % 83.310–85.098 · resolved 84600-84800 23:00 · 80 % 83.600–84.910 · resolved 84600-84800 00:00 · 80 % 84.428–84.875 · resolved 84400-84600 01:00 · 80 % 83.340–84.897 · resolved 84600-84800 02:00 · 80 % 82.740–85.384 · resolved 84800-85000 03:00 · 80 % 82.850–85.500 · resolved 84600-84800 04:00 · 80 % 83.660–85.136 · resolved 84800-85000 05:00 · 80 % 83.220–85.393 · resolved 85000-85200 06:00 · 80 % 84.590–85.377 · resolved 85400-85600 07:00 · 80 % 86.222–86.695 · resolved 86400-86600 08:00 · 80 % 86.224–86.742 · resolved 85800-86000 09:00 · 80 % 85.675–86.286 · resolved 85800-86000 10:00 · 80 % 85.680–86.194 · resolved 86000-86200 11:00 · 80 % 86.007–86.671 · resolved 86200-86400 12:00 · 80 % 85.841–86.483 · resolved 86200-86400 13:00 · 80 % 85.140–86.753 · resolved 86200-86400 14:00 · 80 % 86.272–86.580 · resolved 86400-86600 15:00 · 80 % 84.860–87.123 · resolved 86800-87000 16:00 · 80 % 86.528–87.169 · resolved 86400-86600 17:00 · 80 % 84.940–87.032 · resolved 85600-85800 18:00 · 80 % 85.208–85.866 · resolved 85200-85400 19:00 · 80 % 84.855–85.666 · resolved 85000-85200 20:00 · 80 % 84.335–84.954 · resolved 84600-84800 21:00 · 80 % 84.469–85.095 · resolved 84200-84400 22:00 · 80 % 83.942–84.800 · resolved 84200-84400 23:00 · 80 % 83.942–84.657 · resolved 84400-84600 00:00 · 80 % 84.031–84.738 · resolved 84400-84600 01:00 · 80 % 84.115–86.440 · resolved 84400-84600 02:00 · 80 % 84.263–84.727 · resolved 84400-84600 03:00 · 80 % 84.201–85.095 · resolved 84600-84800 04:00 · 80 % 84.300–84.988 · resolved 84600-84800 05:00 · 80 % 84.263–84.934 · resolved 84400-84600 06:00 · 80 % 84.345–84.875 · resolved 84600-84800 07:00 · 80 % 84.430–84.934 · resolved 84400-84600 08:00 · 80 % 84.266–84.707 · resolved 84600-84800 09:00 · 80 % 84.446–84.764 · resolved 84400-84600 10:00 · 80 % 84.290–84.765 · resolved 84400-84600 11:00 · 80 % 84.445–84.771 · resolved 84400-84600 12:00 · 80 % 84.437–84.792 · resolved 84400-84600 13:00 · 80 % 84.423–84.787 · resolved 84600-84800 14:00 · 80 % 84.288–84.999 · resolved 84600-84800 15:00 · 80 % 84.814–84.979 · resolved 84800-85000 16:00 · 80 % 84.625–85.120 · resolved 84800-85000 17:00 · 80 % 84.621–85.063 · resolved 84800-85000 18:00 · 80 % 84.675–85.035 · resolved 84800-85000 19:00 · 80 % 84.450–84.949 · resolved 84800-85000 20:00 · 80 % 84.800–85.158 · resolved 84800-85000 21:00 · 80 % 84.829–85.139 · resolved 84800-85000 22:00 · 80 % 84.682–85.150 · resolved 84800-85000 23:00 · 80 % 84.474–85.082 · resolved 84600-84800 00:00 · 80 % 84.550–85.020 · resolved 84600-84800 01:00 · 80 % 84.522–85.093 · resolved 84600-84800 02:00 · 80 % 84.341–84.980 · resolved 84600-84800 03:00 · 80 % 84.679–85.757 · resolved 84600-84800 04:00 · 80 % 84.245–84.963 · resolved 84600-84800 05:00 · 80 % 84.248–85.002 · resolved 84600-84800 06:00 · 80 % 84.611–84.954 · resolved 84800-85000 07:00 · 80 % 84.654–84.968 · resolved 84800-85000 08:00 · 80 % 84.818–84.979 · resolved 84800-85000 09:00 · 80 % 84.816–85.046 · resolved 85000-85200 10:00 · 80 % 84.658–84.975 · resolved 85000-85200 11:00 · 80 % 84.894–85.257 · resolved 85000-85200 12:00 · 80 % 85.042–85.458 · resolved 85200-85400 13:00 · 80 % 85.209–85.529 · resolved 85200-85400 14:00 · 80 % 85.200–85.418 · resolved 85200-85400 15:00 · 80 % 84.945–85.385 · resolved 85000-85200 16:00 · 80 % 85.043–85.384 · resolved 85200-85400 17:00 · 80 % 85.034–85.575 · resolved 85200-85400 18:00 · 80 % 85.030–85.466 · resolved 85200-85400 19:00 · 80 % 84.884–85.431 · resolved 85200-85400 20:00 · 80 % 85.130–85.515 · resolved 85200-85400 21:00 · 80 % 85.117–85.548 · resolved 85200-85400 22:00 · 80 % 85.410–85.578 · resolved 85400-85600 23:00 · 80 % 85.102–85.692 · resolved 85800-86000 00:00 · 80 % 85.364–85.985 · resolved 85800-86000 01:00 · 80 % 85.660–86.593 · resolved 86400-86600 02:00 · 80 % 86.231–86.741 · resolved 86400-86600 03:00 · 80 % 86.000–86.854 · resolved 86600-86800 04:00 · 80 % 86.366–87.060 · resolved 86400-86600 05:00 · 80 % 86.412–86.919 · resolved 86400-86600 06:00 · 80 % 85.070–86.968 · resolved 86000-86200 07:00 · 80 % 85.474–86.280 · resolved 85400-85600 08:00 · 80 % 85.252–85.792 · resolved 85600-85800 09:00 · 80 % 85.733–86.316 · resolved 86200-86400 10:00 · 80 % 85.910–86.369 · resolved 86200-86400 11:00 · 80 % 86.077–86.595 · resolved 86200-86400 12:00 · 80 % 85.848–86.350 · resolved 85800-86000 13:00 · 80 % 85.852–86.337 · resolved 86000-86200 14:00 · 80 % 85.851–86.342 · resolved 86000-86200 15:00 · 80 % 85.616–86.361 · resolved 85800-86000 16:00 · 80 % 85.927–86.317 · resolved 86200-86400 17:00 · 80 % 85.915–86.749 · resolved 85600-85800 18:00 · 80 % 85.342–86.200 · resolved 85200-85400 19:00 · 80 % 84.760–85.366 · resolved 85200-85400 20:00 · 80 % 84.865–85.497 · resolved 85400-85600 21:00 · 80 % 85.340–85.779 · resolved 85600-85800 22:00 · 80 % 85.441–85.933 · resolved 85600-85800 23:00 · 80 % 85.327–85.998 · resolved 85600-85800 00:00 · 80 % 85.412–86.133 · resolved 85800-86000 01:00 · 80 % 85.451–86.252 · resolved 85800-86000 02:00 · 80 % 85.288–86.395 · resolved 85600-85800 03:00 · 80 % 85.416–86.251 · resolved 85800-86000 04:00 · 80 % 85.124–86.568 · resolved 85600-85800 05:00 · 80 % 84.968–86.286 · resolved 85400-85600 06:00 · 80 % 84.878–85.735 · resolved 85400-85600 07:00 · 80 % 85.200–85.969 · resolved 85600-85800 08:00 · 80 % 85.425–85.936 · resolved 85400-85600 09:00 · 80 % 85.027–85.377 · resolved 85200-85400 10:00 · 80 % 85.216–85.383 · resolved 85400-85600 11:00 · 80 % 85.525–85.987 · resolved 86000-86200 12:00 · 80 % 85.689–86.178 · resolved 85800-86000 13:00 · 80 % 85.858–86.320 · resolved 86000-86200 19:00 12:00 05:00 22:00 15:00 08:00 01:00
Market 80 % band Resolved Result
06.10. 13:00 85.858–86.320 86000-86200 ✓ inside
06.10. 12:00 85.689–86.178 85800-86000 ✓ inside
06.10. 11:00 85.525–85.987 86000-86200 ✕ outside
06.10. 10:00 85.216–85.383 85400-85600 ✕ outside
06.10. 09:00 85.027–85.377 85200-85400 ✓ inside
06.10. 08:00 85.425–85.936 85400-85600 ✓ inside
06.10. 07:00 85.200–85.969 85600-85800 ✓ inside
06.10. 06:00 84.878–85.735 85400-85600 ✓ inside
06.10. 05:00 84.968–86.286 85400-85600 ✓ inside
06.10. 04:00 85.124–86.568 85600-85800 ✓ inside
06.10. 03:00 85.416–86.251 85800-86000 ✓ inside
06.10. 02:00 85.288–86.395 85600-85800 ✓ inside
06.10. 01:00 85.451–86.252 85800-86000 ✓ inside
06.10. 00:00 85.412–86.133 85800-86000 ✓ inside
05.10. 23:00 85.327–85.998 85600-85800 ✓ inside
05.10. 22:00 85.441–85.933 85600-85800 ✓ inside
05.10. 21:00 85.340–85.779 85600-85800 ✓ inside
05.10. 20:00 84.865–85.497 85400-85600 ✕ outside
05.10. 19:00 84.760–85.366 85200-85400 ✓ inside
05.10. 18:00 85.342–86.200 85200-85400 ✕ outside
05.10. 17:00 85.915–86.749 85600-85800 ✕ outside
05.10. 16:00 85.927–86.317 86200-86400 ✓ inside
05.10. 15:00 85.616–86.361 85800-86000 ✓ inside
05.10. 14:00 85.851–86.342 86000-86200 ✓ inside
05.10. 13:00 85.852–86.337 86000-86200 ✓ inside
05.10. 12:00 85.848–86.350 85800-86000 ✓ inside
05.10. 11:00 86.077–86.595 86200-86400 ✓ inside
05.10. 10:00 85.910–86.369 86200-86400 ✓ inside
05.10. 09:00 85.733–86.316 86200-86400 ✓ inside
05.10. 08:00 85.252–85.792 85600-85800 ✓ inside
05.10. 07:00 85.474–86.280 85400-85600 ✓ inside
05.10. 06:00 85.070–86.968 86000-86200 ✓ inside
05.10. 05:00 86.412–86.919 86400-86600 ✓ inside
05.10. 04:00 86.366–87.060 86400-86600 ✓ inside
05.10. 03:00 86.000–86.854 86600-86800 ✓ inside
05.10. 02:00 86.231–86.741 86400-86600 ✓ inside
05.10. 01:00 85.660–86.593 86400-86600 ✓ inside
05.10. 00:00 85.364–85.985 85800-86000 ✓ inside
04.10. 23:00 85.102–85.692 85800-86000 ✕ outside
04.10. 22:00 85.410–85.578 85400-85600 ✓ inside
04.10. 21:00 85.117–85.548 85200-85400 ✓ inside
04.10. 20:00 85.130–85.515 85200-85400 ✓ inside
04.10. 19:00 84.884–85.431 85200-85400 ✓ inside
04.10. 18:00 85.030–85.466 85200-85400 ✓ inside
04.10. 17:00 85.034–85.575 85200-85400 ✓ inside
04.10. 16:00 85.043–85.384 85200-85400 ✓ inside
04.10. 15:00 84.945–85.385 85000-85200 ✓ inside
04.10. 14:00 85.200–85.418 85200-85400 ✓ inside
04.10. 13:00 85.209–85.529 85200-85400 ✓ inside
04.10. 12:00 85.042–85.458 85200-85400 ✓ inside
04.10. 11:00 84.894–85.257 85000-85200 ✓ inside
04.10. 10:00 84.658–84.975 85000-85200 ✕ outside
04.10. 09:00 84.816–85.046 85000-85200 ✕ outside
04.10. 08:00 84.818–84.979 84800-85000 ✓ inside
04.10. 07:00 84.654–84.968 84800-85000 ✓ inside
04.10. 06:00 84.611–84.954 84800-85000 ✓ inside
04.10. 05:00 84.248–85.002 84600-84800 ✓ inside
04.10. 04:00 84.245–84.963 84600-84800 ✓ inside
04.10. 03:00 84.679–85.757 84600-84800 ✓ inside
04.10. 02:00 84.341–84.980 84600-84800 ✓ inside
04.10. 01:00 84.522–85.093 84600-84800 ✓ inside
04.10. 00:00 84.550–85.020 84600-84800 ✓ inside
03.10. 23:00 84.474–85.082 84600-84800 ✓ inside
03.10. 22:00 84.682–85.150 84800-85000 ✓ inside
03.10. 21:00 84.829–85.139 84800-85000 ✓ inside
03.10. 20:00 84.800–85.158 84800-85000 ✓ inside
03.10. 19:00 84.450–84.949 84800-85000 ✓ inside
03.10. 18:00 84.675–85.035 84800-85000 ✓ inside
03.10. 17:00 84.621–85.063 84800-85000 ✓ inside
03.10. 16:00 84.625–85.120 84800-85000 ✓ inside
03.10. 15:00 84.814–84.979 84800-85000 ✓ inside
03.10. 14:00 84.288–84.999 84600-84800 ✓ inside
03.10. 13:00 84.423–84.787 84600-84800 ✓ inside
03.10. 12:00 84.437–84.792 84400-84600 ✓ inside
03.10. 11:00 84.445–84.771 84400-84600 ✓ inside
03.10. 10:00 84.290–84.765 84400-84600 ✓ inside
03.10. 09:00 84.446–84.764 84400-84600 ✓ inside
03.10. 08:00 84.266–84.707 84600-84800 ✓ inside
03.10. 07:00 84.430–84.934 84400-84600 ✓ inside
03.10. 06:00 84.345–84.875 84600-84800 ✓ inside
03.10. 05:00 84.263–84.934 84400-84600 ✓ inside
03.10. 04:00 84.300–84.988 84600-84800 ✓ inside
03.10. 03:00 84.201–85.095 84600-84800 ✓ inside
03.10. 02:00 84.263–84.727 84400-84600 ✓ inside
03.10. 01:00 84.115–86.440 84400-84600 ✓ inside
03.10. 00:00 84.031–84.738 84400-84600 ✓ inside
02.10. 23:00 83.942–84.657 84400-84600 ✓ inside
02.10. 22:00 83.942–84.800 84200-84400 ✓ inside
02.10. 21:00 84.469–85.095 84200-84400 ✕ outside
02.10. 20:00 84.335–84.954 84600-84800 ✓ inside
02.10. 19:00 84.855–85.666 85000-85200 ✓ inside
02.10. 18:00 85.208–85.866 85200-85400 ✓ inside
02.10. 17:00 84.940–87.032 85600-85800 ✓ inside
02.10. 16:00 86.528–87.169 86400-86600 ✕ outside
02.10. 15:00 84.860–87.123 86800-87000 ✓ inside
02.10. 14:00 86.272–86.580 86400-86600 ✓ inside
02.10. 13:00 85.140–86.753 86200-86400 ✓ inside
02.10. 12:00 85.841–86.483 86200-86400 ✓ inside
02.10. 11:00 86.007–86.671 86200-86400 ✓ inside
02.10. 10:00 85.680–86.194 86000-86200 ✓ inside
02.10. 09:00 85.675–86.286 85800-86000 ✓ inside
02.10. 08:00 86.224–86.742 85800-86000 ✕ outside
02.10. 07:00 86.222–86.695 86400-86600 ✓ inside
02.10. 06:00 84.590–85.377 85400-85600 ✕ outside
02.10. 05:00 83.220–85.393 85000-85200 ✓ inside
02.10. 04:00 83.660–85.136 84800-85000 ✓ inside
02.10. 03:00 82.850–85.500 84600-84800 ✓ inside
02.10. 02:00 82.740–85.384 84800-85000 ✓ inside
02.10. 01:00 83.340–84.897 84600-84800 ✓ inside
02.10. 00:00 84.428–84.875 84400-84600 ✓ inside
01.10. 23:00 83.600–84.910 84600-84800 ✓ inside
01.10. 22:00 83.310–85.098 84600-84800 ✓ inside
01.10. 21:00 84.809–85.160 84600-84800 ✕ outside
01.10. 20:00 83.800–85.250 84800-85000 ✓ inside
01.10. 19:00 83.425–84.384 84000-84200 ✓ inside

The next 24 hours

Line: median. Shaded: the band the market gives 80 %. Prices in USD.

84.000 86.000 19:00 23:00 03:00 07:00 11:00 15:00 19:00 · median 85.900 · 80 % 84.665–86.790 20:00 · median 85.880 · 80 % 84.656–86.830 21:00 · median 85.877 · 80 % 84.612–86.835 22:00 · median 85.888 · 80 % 84.616–86.880 23:00 · median 85.900 · 80 % 84.608–86.940 00:00 · median 85.912 · 80 % 84.500–86.975 01:00 · median 85.925 · 80 % 84.426–86.980 02:00 · median 85.950 · 80 % 84.373–87.080 03:00 · median 85.985 · 80 % 84.366–87.112 04:00 · median 85.825 · 80 % 84.240–87.120 05:00 · median 85.800 · 80 % 84.240–87.110 06:00 · median 85.812 · 80 % 84.166–87.162 07:00 · median 85.787 · 80 % 84.046–87.157 08:00 · median 85.716 · 80 % 84.246–87.182 09:00 · median 85.857 · 80 % 84.160–87.191 10:00 · median 85.866 · 80 % 84.160–87.230 11:00 · median 86.012 · 80 % 84.153–87.305 12:00 · median 85.916 · 80 % 84.086–87.334 13:00 · median 85.916 · 80 % 84.086–87.334 14:00 · median 85.800 · 80 % 84.040–87.216 15:00 · median 85.683 · 80 % 83.633–87.166 16:00 · median 85.728 · 80 % 83.753–87.235 17:00 · median 85.728 · 80 % 83.766–87.325 18:00 · median 85.742 · 80 % 83.706–87.370

The next 30 days

Line: median. Shaded: the band the market gives 80 %. Prices in USD.

70.000 80.000 90.000 07.10. 12.10. 17.10. 22.10. 27.10. 01.11. 07.10. · median 85.722 · 80 % 83.390–87.233 08.10. · median 85.854 · 80 % 83.637–87.784 09.10. · median 85.617 · 80 % 83.285–87.833 10.10. · median 86.000 · 80 % 83.314–93.560 11.10. · median 85.958 · 80 % 83.171–91.800 12.10. · median 86.000 · 80 % 83.000–93.333 13.10. · median 85.227 · 80 % 82.825–90.350 14.10. · median 86.395 · 80 % 83.700–89.950 15.10. · median 86.750 · 80 % 83.675–90.950 16.10. · median 88.735 · 80 % 83.433–95.350 17.10. · median 87.730 · 80 % 79.500–94.749 18.10. · median 87.375 · 80 % 79.050–95.300 19.10. · median 86.722 · 80 % 78.614–95.233 20.10. · median 87.250 · 80 % 78.342–95.533 21.10. · median 85.607 · 80 % 77.611–96.500 22.10. · median 85.400 · 80 % 77.400–96.233 23.10. · median 85.642 · 80 % 77.037–96.140 24.10. · median 86.285 · 80 % 76.733–95.920 25.10. · median 85.928 · 80 % 76.720–95.600 26.10. · median 85.705 · 80 % 79.400–92.800 27.10. · median 87.166 · 80 % 79.600–92.200 28.10. · median 88.458 · 80 % 78.850–92.922 29.10. · median 89.433 · 80 % 78.100–92.990 30.10. · median 87.250 · 80 % 73.675–95.660 31.10. · median 86.750 · 80 % 72.875–95.916 01.11. · median 87.833 · 80 % 72.250–95.750 02.11. · median 88.833 · 80 % 70.980–96.033 03.11. · median 87.833 · 80 % 70.425–94.757 04.11. · median 88.333 · 80 % 70.000–95.000 05.11. · median 88.100 · 80 % 69.450–95.366

Anchored in Bitcoin

Every hour of recorded quotes is hashed and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. A forecast counts as anchored when its hour was in a Bitcoin block before its market closed — only then can anyone check that the forecast is older than the outcome. Bitcoin takes about an hour to confirm a stamp, so this works for forecasts made hours ahead, not minutes.

Quotes recorded Bitcoin block Mined SHA-256 of the file
06.10. 09:00–10:00 970.149 10:13 14e01cd01cf0026b…
06.10. 08:00–09:00 970.149 10:13 d8495a485cf5b031…
06.10. 07:00–08:00 970.142 08:20 a8fd7f07c28f0597…
06.10. 06:00–07:00 970.135 07:28 6f2194c53b94469b…
06.10. 05:00–06:00 970.131 06:14 7e817b1d21da0591…
06.10. 04:00–05:00 970.123 05:14 a3ba77b01cbaa546…
06.10. 03:00–04:00 970.120 05:03 0ec16c2ebc8d8fbd…
06.10. 02:00–03:00 970.116 03:56 8c3dfa23df9fff16…

Source: Glimpse market quotes, recorded every 2 to 10 minutes. Glimpse has no price history, so the track record starts with the recording. Updated 13:10.